What AI-built market analysis looks like Collin County, 61,104 listings

Fannie Mae stopped requiring Form 1004MC, the Market Conditions Addendum, in August 2018, saying its Collateral Underwriter supplies market trend information to lenders. Orrick ↗ The appraiser still analyzes market conditions, and the three-period grid remains one way to show that work. UAD 3.6 and the redesigned URAR become mandatory for new reports submitted to UCDP on or after November 2, 2026, with the exception path covered in our UAD 3.6 delay piece. Freddie Mac FAQ ↗

Here is the grid for all of Collin County, residential, with an effective date of October 5, 2026.

Read alone, the grid says the sales pace, active listings and prices are increasing, supply is stable, and days on market are falling. The three periods also cover different seasons. The prior 7 to 12 months run from October 2025 through early April 2026, including the slowest months for closings. The current 3 months run from July to early October, after the spring peak. Part of each trend in the right-hand column reflects the season.

The chapters below analyze the same data by month and by segment, and list the rules behind each figure. Each chart is drawn from figures the monitor calculated; none was estimated for illustration.

Monthly months of inventory stayed between 3.8 and 4.8 from January 2025 through September 2026, close to the 4-month line the monitor uses between a seller’s market and a balanced one. On the headline measure, active listings on October 5 against the trailing 12-month sales pace, supply was 4.5 months, against 4.9 a year earlier. Median days on market at sale rose from 37 to 41, and median cumulative days on market across relistings rose from 47 to 51.

A median sale price describes the homes that sold, and the mix of homes that sold changed. Sales under $500,000 were 59.4% of closings in the last 12 months, against 54.4% in the prior 12. Sales under $300,000 rose from 1,848 to 2,544, while sales from $500,000 to $750,000 fell from 5,162 to 4,540. Price per square foot fell less than the median, −4.9% against −6.3%, which is consistent with a shift toward smaller and lower-priced homes.

The monitor can separate those effects because it can filter. Chapter 07 shows the same figures by city, and the segment filters let an appraiser narrow to a subject’s ZIP, property type, price band and construction type before reading a trend.

The space between the two lines is the price cutting that happens before a sale. Buyers paid a median 98.0% of the final list price over the last 12 months and 95.2% of the original list price. The original-list ratio fell to 92.7% in December 2025 and recovered to about 96% in the spring. The share of sales closing above list price peaked at 14.6% in April 2025 and reached 13.2% in April 2026.

Closed-sale statistics leave out listings that did not sell. The monitor counts them: 10,280 listings were cancelled, expired or withdrawn in the last 12 months, against 8,588 in the prior 12. As a share of every listing that sold or left the market, that is 37.4%, up from 33.4%.

The rate peaked at 48.4% in January 2026 and reached 45.8% in September 2026, its highest reading outside winter. Withdrawals rose from a handful a month to 122 in September 2026. The MLS added Hold and Withdrawn as separate statuses during the period, so that line reflects a change in how the MLS records listings as well as seller behavior.

57% of listings that sold or left the market had at least one price reduction, against 56% a year earlier. The median reduction on those listings ran between 4.3% and 5.8% of the original list price month to month.

Plano and Celina each had a median sale price of $505,000 over the last 12 months. Plano had 3.2 months of supply, a median 28 days on market, and sales at 96.5% of original list price. Celina had 7.2 months of supply, 65 days on market, and 91.4% of original list. Celina’s median price was down 14.3% from the prior year, and 66% of its sales were new construction, against 4% in Plano.

The chart below places each city with at least 150 sales in the last 12 months by months of supply and the change in its median price. Select a city to read its figures.

Princeton had the lowest median of the large cities at $299,990, with 83% of its sales in new construction and 3.1 months of supply. City figures are for the part of each city inside Collin County, as the MLS reports it. A city with a few hundred sales can move several points on a handful of closings, which is why the monitor grays out any row with fewer than 25 sales.

Supply rises with price. Homes under $300,000 had 3.4 months of supply, down from 4.6. Homes over $2 million had 11.6, up from 9.3.

The monitor matched 417 properties that closed twice between October 2024 and October 2026 and sorted each pair by what happened between the sales. A gain of 15% or more is a value-add flip. A first sale by a builder, or a jump in year built or living area, gets its own class. The resale pairs carry addresses in the monitor; this article reports only the totals.

Flips clustered in older Plano, Allen, McKinney and the Collin County part of Dallas, in homes built in the 1970s and 1980s. Not every repeat sale gained: 137 pairs resold within 5% of the purchase price or at a loss, with a median change of −0.6%, and 43 homes first sold by a builder resold at a median −3.4%. Another 501 homes bought in the window were back on the market and not yet resold on October 5.

For a lender reviewing a renovation loan, or an appraiser supporting an after-repair value, these pairs are a local record of what renovated homes in the same ZIP resold for and how long the work took. The 194 pairs are a sample, and each one still needs to be verified before it is used as a comparable.